by Joe Manausa, MBA Century 21 Manausa and Associates Tallahassee,
Florida, www.manausa.com, wrote this
for Tallahassee.com
Pending Home Sales Report By NAR Is A Bad Joke
I have to admit it, the only reason that I read the monthly Pending
Home Sales Index published by NAR is to see how they will spin the housing
data into something positive for the housing market.
Imagine my “lack of shock” this month when I saw the
positive report regarding 14 consecutive months of year-over-year gains in the
pending home Sales Index. Of course, my memory reminded me that we continue to
revise past numbers down so that current numbers appear higher.
If you would like to see the latest pending home Sales Index
spin by the National Association of REALTORS, you are welcome to wade through
it. However, if you would like an overview, infused with some funny quotes by
famous people, then simply proceed below.
Is NARs Pending Home
Sales Index Pure Fiction?
“Fiction writing is great, you can make up almost anything.”
– Ivana Trump, on finishing her first novel
I think that Lawrence Yun and his staff mistakenly feel that
they have a story to tell. It is a story of the importance of home ownership
and why things are always “looking up” for homeowners.
His job title might say “Chief Economist” but his job
description is purely about marketing.
Tell the people that “now is the time to buy,” and support
it with a spin on numbers.
14 Positive Pending
Home Sales Indexes In A Row!
“Those who survived the San Francisco earthquake said, “Thank God,
I’m still alive.” But, of course, those who died, their lives will never be the
same again.” – Barbara Boxer, Senator
This month’s pending home Sales Index represents 14 in a row
with year-over-year gains. Yeah!
Perhaps NAR hopes that those of us that are not just “one
time readers” will forget their big news story a few months ago.
Do you remember? It’s the one where NAR admitted to “overstating”
the numbers for several years, so they decided to go back and revise them
downward. Sort of like “coming clean,” right?
Actually, they did it so that “the past” could be worse than
“the present.” I wonder if NAR had not revised the previous reports downward if
they could report 14 positive pending home Sales Indexs in a row today. Hmmmm.
No Really, The
Pending Home Sales Index Is All Good News!
“If you take out the killings, Washington actually has a very low crime
rate.” – Marion Barry, mayor of Washington,
D.C.
In his recent report on existing home sales, Lawrence Yun
pointed out that the inventory of homes for sale is around 6.6 months of
supply. Most real estate experts would say that this level is consistent with a
buyer’s market, just above market equilibrium. So in simple terms, there are
still too many homes for sale for the current level of demand in the US.
But now just a few days later, in the newly released Pending
Home Sales Index, Dr. Yun claims that inventory shortages are a factor, and
then even goes on to report that “housing starts will likely need to double
over the next two years to satisfy the pent-up demand for both rentals and
ownership.”
I don’t even know how to respond to such a reckless
statement.
The Pending Home
Sales Index Suggests Strong 2013
“We didn’t underestimate them. They were just a lot better
than we thought” – Bobby Robson, after the 1990 World Cup Final match
against Cameroon
If you had the stomach to pull-up the past six years worth
of unrevised Pending Home Sales Index published by the NAR, you would find
that this once respected organization no longer carries much credibility.
There is a lack of leadership and a lack of credibility that
will take a long time to recover at NAR.
It has lied, spun, twisted, and tried to shape the housing
industry. And it has failed. The market seems to move forward unaffected by the
efforts of deception we continually see in the monthly Pending Home Sales
Index.
I hope that NAR will understand that they are wasting our
money with this charade, and I wish they would focus on reality so that the NAR could
step forward and help solve the real problems in the housing market.
It is my belief that if REALTORS would get rowdy and loud
enough on outing our NAR’s tactics of puffery and falsification, we might
eventually affect a change in the market and certainly in how the Pending Home
Sales Index is delivered each month.
